Scouting Report
Connor McDavid holds a +1.2% FO% edge overall. Look for McDavid on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 53.4% vs Pavelski 52.2% (+1.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Pavelski 55.0%
Defensive zone
McDavid 56.9%
Neutral zone
Pavelski 54.7%
Result
Joe Pavelski favored at 51.4%
48.6%
51.4%
McDavid
Pavelski
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
1
(7 meetings)
6
1
McDavid
Pavelski
Last 7: McDavid 6-1 Pavelski
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
0
1
McDavid
Pavelski
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
2
0
McDavid
Pavelski
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McDavid
4
0
McDavid
Pavelski
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Pavelski
Edge
Even Strength
54.3% (1,002)
52.5% (570)
+1.8%
Power Play
44.8% (29)
54.5% (145)
-9.7%
Penalty Kill
33.3% (15)
44.4% (36)
-11.1%
On penalty kill, Pavelski has a +11.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Pavelski shoots right. McDavid is 52.6% vs right-shot opponents (367).
McDavid shoots left. Pavelski is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (588).
Home / Away
McDavid
Pavelski
Home
53.6% (507)
55.0% (391)
Away
53.8% (539)
49.7% (360)
By Period
McDavid
Pavelski
P1
52.6%
50.8%
P2
54.1%
55.0%
P3
54.9%
52.0%
OT
44.4%
25.0%
Final 5 min
52.2%
56.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
53.7%
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
52.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 20, 2022 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Apr 20, 2022 | 2 | 16:04 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Apr 20, 2022 | 2 | 13:04 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Apr 20, 2022 | 2 | 09:29 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Apr 20, 2022 | 2 | 09:25 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 22, 2022 | 1 | 17:30 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 22, 2022 | 1 | 05:43 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |