Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +7.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Stepan on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Stepan wins 45.9% vs right-shot opponents — Pavelski shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stepan 47.9% vs Pavelski 54.4% (-7.2%)
H2H factor
Stepan leads 14-5 in 19 meetings
Offensive zone
Pavelski 89.4%
Defensive zone
Pavelski 86.1%
Neutral zone
Pavelski 89.1%
Result
Joe Pavelski favored at 88.6%
11.4%
88.6%
Stepan
Pavelski
Head-to-Head Record
14
-
5
(19 meetings)
14
5
Stepan
Pavelski
Last 10: Stepan 8-2 Pavelski
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stepan
7
4
Stepan
Pavelski
11 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stepan
3
1
Stepan
Pavelski
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Stepan
4
0
Stepan
Pavelski
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stepan
Pavelski
Edge
Even Strength
47.0% (1,210)
53.2% (690)
-6.2%
Power Play
51.7% (232)
61.5% (174)
-9.8%
Penalty Kill
47.2% (108)
55.3% (47)
-8.1%
On power play, Pavelski has a +9.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Pavelski shoots right. Stepan is 45.9% vs right-shot opponents (471).
Stepan shoots right. Pavelski is 61.8% vs right-shot opponents (204).
Home / Away
Stepan
Pavelski
Home
48.2% (761)
56.1% (421)
Away
47.3% (789)
53.9% (490)
By Period
Stepan
Pavelski
P1
46.3%
57.1%
P2
50.4%
55.8%
P3
46.3%
52.5%
OT
55.2%
44.4%
Final 5 min
47.4%
60.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stepan
50.0%▼
55.5%
47.7%
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
54.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 13, 2018 | 2 | 14:56 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Feb 13, 2018 | 2 | 02:54 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 13, 2018 | 1 | 13:48 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Jan 16, 2018 | OT | 01:46 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Jan 16, 2018 | OT | 00:17 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Jan 16, 2018 | 3 | 15:43 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |
| Jan 16, 2018 | 3 | 13:00 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Jan 16, 2018 | 3 | 03:32 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |
| Jan 16, 2018 | 3 | 03:26 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 16, 2018 | 2 | 19:11 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |
| Jan 16, 2018 | 2 | 08:12 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Jan 16, 2018 | 1 | 13:30 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Jan 16, 2018 | 1 | 07:33 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Jan 16, 2018 | 1 | 01:17 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Jan 13, 2018 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |
| Jan 13, 2018 | 3 | 13:25 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 13, 2018 | 1 | 16:49 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Nov 22, 2017 | 3 | 12:01 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 22, 2017 | 2 | 14:52 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |