Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +1.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Larkin on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Larkin wins 60.0% vs right-shot opponents — Pavelski shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 54.2% vs Pavelski 52.9% (+1.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Larkin 50.3%
Defensive zone
Larkin 52.8%
Neutral zone
Larkin 53.5%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 52.7%
52.7%
47.3%
Larkin
Pavelski
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
1
(6 meetings)
5
1
Larkin
Pavelski
Last 6: Larkin 5-1 Pavelski
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
1
0
Larkin
Pavelski
1 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Larkin
Pavelski
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Larkin
3
0
Larkin
Pavelski
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Pavelski
Edge
Even Strength
52.9% (1,228)
54.0% (730)
-1.1%
Power Play
63.1% (214)
57.1% (156)
+6.0%
Penalty Kill
55.2% (145)
41.7% (103)
+13.5%
On penalty kill, Larkin has a +13.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Pavelski shoots right. Larkin is 60.0% vs right-shot opponents (502).
Larkin shoots left. Pavelski is 54.6% vs left-shot opponents (713).
Home / Away
Larkin
Pavelski
Home
55.8% (805)
55.2% (458)
Away
53.2% (782)
51.4% (531)
By Period
Larkin
Pavelski
P1
55.2%
54.0%
P2
53.3%
54.5%
P3
55.1%
50.5%
OT
51.7%
60.0%
Final 5 min
56.1%
52.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
54.5%
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
53.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 24, 2019 | 3 | 18:53 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Feb 24, 2019 | 2 | 16:45 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Feb 24, 2019 | 2 | 14:20 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Feb 24, 2019 | 1 | 13:26 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Feb 24, 2019 | 1 | 10:45 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 24, 2019 | 1 | 10:31 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |