Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +5.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Pavelski on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 7 meetings). Strome wins 39.9% vs right-shot opponents — Pavelski shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Strome 47.6% vs Pavelski 51.8% (-5.0%)
H2H factor
Pavelski leads 9-5 in 14 meetings
Offensive zone
Strome 77.6%
Defensive zone
Strome 68.3%
Neutral zone
Strome 70.4%
Result
Dylan Strome favored at 71.9%
71.9%
28.1%
Strome
Pavelski
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
9
(14 meetings)
5
9
Strome
Pavelski
Last 10: Strome 4-6 Pavelski
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Strome
4
1
Strome
Pavelski
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
0
7
Strome
Pavelski
7 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Strome
Pavelski
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Strome
Pavelski
Edge
Even Strength
46.5% (310)
53.5% (508)
-7.0%
Power Play
49.1% (110)
51.7% (118)
-2.6%
Penalty Kill
0.0% (1)
41.4% (70)
-41.4%
On penalty kill, Pavelski has a +41.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Pavelski shoots right. Strome is 39.9% vs right-shot opponents (173).
Strome shoots left. Pavelski is 51.0% vs left-shot opponents (533).
Home / Away
Strome
Pavelski
Home
46.3% (216)
54.3% (372)
Away
47.8% (205)
49.4% (324)
By Period
Strome
Pavelski
P1
48.5%
48.7%
P2
50.7%
57.7%
P3
41.5%
50.2%
OT
40.0%
44.4%
Final 5 min
45.0%
54.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Strome
44.0%▼
55.0%
47.0%
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
52.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 10, 2021 | 2 | 19:20 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Apr 8, 2021 | 3 | 09:39 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Apr 8, 2021 | 1 | 19:41 | Offensive | Dylan Strome |
| Apr 6, 2021 | 1 | 04:12 | Offensive | Dylan Strome |
| Feb 9, 2021 | 2 | 04:04 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 9, 2021 | 1 | 12:21 | Offensive | Dylan Strome |
| Feb 9, 2021 | 1 | 00:18 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 9, 2021 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Dylan Strome |
| Feb 7, 2021 | OT | 00:34 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 7, 2021 | 3 | 14:20 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 7, 2021 | 3 | 01:48 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 7, 2021 | 1 | 16:45 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 7, 2021 | 1 | 06:20 | Offensive | Dylan Strome |
| Feb 7, 2021 | 1 | 00:54 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |