Scouting Report
Jonathan Toews holds a +3.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Toews on defensive-zone draws (78% H2H, 9 meetings). Pavelski wins 54.4% vs left-shot opponents — Toews shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pavelski 54.5% vs Toews 58.0% (-3.6%)
H2H factor
Toews leads 16-8 in 24 meetings
Offensive zone
Pavelski 62.3%
Defensive zone
Pavelski 61.7%
Neutral zone
Pavelski 63.1%
Result
Joe Pavelski favored at 62.3%
62.3%
37.7%
Pavelski
Toews
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
16
(24 meetings)
8
16
Pavelski
Toews
Last 10: Pavelski 4-6 Toews
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Toews
4
5
Pavelski
Toews
9 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Toews
2
7
Pavelski
Toews
9 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Toews
2
4
Pavelski
Toews
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pavelski
Toews
Edge
Even Strength
53.6% (657)
58.2% (1,200)
-4.6%
Power Play
60.2% (221)
62.8% (250)
-2.6%
Penalty Kill
51.7% (60)
53.7% (123)
-2.0%
On even strength, Toews has a +4.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Toews shoots left. Pavelski is 54.4% vs left-shot opponents (731).
Pavelski shoots right. Toews is 58.9% vs right-shot opponents (630).
Home / Away
Pavelski
Toews
Home
57.4% (470)
59.8% (805)
Away
52.6% (468)
57.3% (768)
By Period
Pavelski
Toews
P1
53.4%
60.2%
P2
55.6%
60.7%
P3
55.5%
55.9%
OT
62.5%
44.8%
Final 5 min
55.9%
61.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
55.0%
Toews
52.0%▼
58.0%
58.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 9, 2016 | 3 | 16:48 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Feb 9, 2016 | 3 | 14:36 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 9, 2016 | 3 | 08:29 | Defensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Feb 9, 2016 | 2 | 18:12 | Defensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Feb 9, 2016 | 2 | 04:11 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 9, 2016 | 1 | 12:50 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Feb 9, 2016 | 1 | 08:18 | Neutral | Jonathan Toews |
| Dec 20, 2015 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 20, 2015 | 3 | 17:24 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 20, 2015 | 3 | 02:30 | Defensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Dec 20, 2015 | 2 | 18:59 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Dec 20, 2015 | 2 | 09:00 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 20, 2015 | 2 | 06:33 | Neutral | Jonathan Toews |
| Dec 20, 2015 | 2 | 00:53 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 20, 2015 | 1 | 16:10 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 20, 2015 | 1 | 10:40 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 20, 2015 | 1 | 00:48 | Neutral | Jonathan Toews |
| Nov 25, 2015 | 2 | 19:50 | Defensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Nov 25, 2015 | 2 | 19:28 | Defensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Nov 25, 2015 | 2 | 10:51 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |