Scouting Report
Jonathan Toews holds a +6.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Toews on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Pavelski wins 53.6% vs left-shot opponents — Toews shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pavelski 52.2% vs Toews 58.4% (-6.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Pavelski 76.9%
Defensive zone
Pavelski 55.6%
Neutral zone
Pavelski 64.3%
Result
Joe Pavelski favored at 64.7%
64.7%
35.3%
Pavelski
Toews
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
6
(8 meetings)
2
6
Pavelski
Toews
Last 8: Pavelski 2-6 Toews
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Toews
0
3
Pavelski
Toews
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Toews
1
3
Pavelski
Toews
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Pavelski
1
0
Pavelski
Toews
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pavelski
Toews
Edge
Even Strength
52.5% (570)
58.0% (901)
-5.5%
Power Play
54.5% (145)
69.5% (226)
-15.0%
Penalty Kill
44.4% (36)
51.7% (209)
-7.3%
On power play, Toews has a +15.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Toews shoots left. Pavelski is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (588).
Pavelski shoots right. Toews is 63.5% vs right-shot opponents (515).
Home / Away
Pavelski
Toews
Home
55.0% (391)
59.3% (637)
Away
49.7% (360)
58.7% (699)
By Period
Pavelski
Toews
P1
50.8%
61.5%
P2
55.0%
55.2%
P3
52.0%
60.0%
OT
25.0%
70.6%
Final 5 min
56.2%
57.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
52.5%
Toews
58.0%▼
61.0%
59.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 10, 2022 | 3 | 19:50 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Apr 10, 2022 | 2 | 13:50 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 18, 2021 | 3 | 09:13 | Defensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Dec 18, 2021 | 2 | 18:01 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Dec 18, 2021 | 2 | 06:54 | Defensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Dec 18, 2021 | 2 | 03:53 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Dec 18, 2021 | 1 | 19:26 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 18, 2021 | 1 | 03:02 | Defensive | Jonathan Toews |