Scouting Report
Jonathan Toews holds a +9.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Toews on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pavelski 53.0% vs Toews 61.9% (-9.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Pavelski 73.3%
Defensive zone
Pavelski 80.3%
Neutral zone
Pavelski 73.7%
Result
Joe Pavelski favored at 74.9%
74.9%
25.1%
Pavelski
Toews
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
5
(5 meetings)
0
5
Pavelski
Toews
Last 5: Pavelski 0-5 Toews
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Toews
0
1
Pavelski
Toews
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Toews
0
1
Pavelski
Toews
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Toews
0
3
Pavelski
Toews
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pavelski
Toews
Edge
Even Strength
52.3% (560)
61.1% (650)
-8.8%
Power Play
57.5% (113)
71.9% (192)
-14.4%
Penalty Kill
62.5% (16)
59.6% (99)
+2.9%
On power play, Toews has a +14.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Toews shoots left. Pavelski is 52.0% vs left-shot opponents (513).
Pavelski shoots right. Toews is 66.7% vs right-shot opponents (384).
Home / Away
Pavelski
Toews
Home
54.2% (360)
64.8% (560)
Away
52.6% (329)
60.6% (381)
By Period
Pavelski
Toews
P1
54.5%
62.3%
P2
56.7%
63.9%
P3
50.8%
62.8%
OT
30.8%
70.0%
Final 5 min
51.4%
60.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
53.4%
Toews
58.0%▼
61.0%
63.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 23, 2022 | 3 | 19:17 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Nov 23, 2022 | 3 | 18:27 | Neutral | Jonathan Toews |
| Nov 23, 2022 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jonathan Toews |
| Nov 23, 2022 | 1 | 13:18 | Defensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Nov 23, 2022 | 1 | 13:00 | Neutral | Jonathan Toews |