Scouting Report
Jonathan Toews holds a +3.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Toews on offensive-zone draws (70% H2H, 67 meetings). Pavelski wins 53.6% vs left-shot opponents — Toews shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pavelski 54.1% vs Toews 57.9% (-3.7%)
H2H factor
Toews leads 89-60 in 149 meetings
Offensive zone
Pavelski 77.4%
Defensive zone
Pavelski 72.5%
Neutral zone
Pavelski 72.2%
Result
Joe Pavelski favored at 74.6%
74.6%
25.4%
Pavelski
Toews
Head-to-Head Record
60
-
89
(149 meetings)
60
89
Pavelski
Toews
Last 10: Pavelski 1-9 Toews
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Toews
20
47
Pavelski
Toews
67 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
27
24
Pavelski
Toews
51 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Toews
13
18
Pavelski
Toews
31 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pavelski
Toews
Edge
Even Strength
53.6% (8,791)
57.2% (13,047)
-3.6%
Power Play
58.2% (2,122)
63.3% (3,252)
-5.1%
Penalty Kill
50.9% (1,138)
53.6% (1,810)
-2.7%
On power play, Toews has a +5.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Toews shoots left. Pavelski is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (9,103).
Pavelski shoots right. Toews is 60.0% vs right-shot opponents (6,486).
Home / Away
Pavelski
Toews
Home
56.4% (5,998)
59.7% (9,192)
Away
52.0% (6,076)
56.1% (8,948)
By Period
Pavelski
Toews
P1
53.5%
58.6%
P2
55.2%
57.8%
P3
53.9%
57.3%
OT
52.3%
58.9%
Final 5 min
54.4%
58.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
54.2%
Toews
58.0%▼
61.0%
57.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 23, 2022 | 3 | 19:17 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Nov 23, 2022 | 3 | 18:27 | Neutral | Jonathan Toews |
| Nov 23, 2022 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jonathan Toews |
| Nov 23, 2022 | 1 | 13:18 | Defensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Nov 23, 2022 | 1 | 13:00 | Neutral | Jonathan Toews |
| Apr 10, 2022 | 3 | 19:50 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Apr 10, 2022 | 2 | 13:50 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 18, 2021 | 3 | 09:13 | Defensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Dec 18, 2021 | 2 | 18:01 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Dec 18, 2021 | 2 | 06:54 | Defensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Dec 18, 2021 | 2 | 03:53 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Dec 18, 2021 | 1 | 19:26 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 18, 2021 | 1 | 03:02 | Defensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Feb 23, 2020 | 2 | 14:22 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 26, 2019 | 3 | 13:55 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 26, 2019 | 3 | 09:49 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Nov 26, 2019 | 3 | 06:47 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 26, 2019 | 3 | 03:15 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 26, 2019 | 3 | 03:05 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Nov 26, 2019 | 2 | 07:59 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |