Scouting Report
Jordan Staal holds a +1.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Staal on offensive-zone draws (56% H2H, 43 meetings). Pavelski wins 53.6% vs left-shot opponents — Staal shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pavelski 54.1% vs Staal 55.3% (-1.2%)
H2H factor
Staal leads 59-46 in 105 meetings
Offensive zone
Pavelski 66.0%
Defensive zone
Staal 57.6%
Neutral zone
Pavelski 55.1%
Result
Joe Pavelski favored at 54.6%
54.6%
45.4%
Pavelski
Staal
Head-to-Head Record
46
-
59
(105 meetings)
46
59
Pavelski
Staal
Last 10: Pavelski 5-5 Staal
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Staal
19
24
Pavelski
Staal
43 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Staal
18
23
Pavelski
Staal
41 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Staal
9
12
Pavelski
Staal
21 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pavelski
Staal
Edge
Even Strength
53.6% (8,791)
56.0% (14,405)
-2.4%
Power Play
58.2% (2,122)
62.6% (1,691)
-4.4%
Penalty Kill
50.9% (1,138)
48.1% (2,841)
+2.8%
On power play, Staal has a +4.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Staal shoots left. Pavelski is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (9,103).
Pavelski shoots right. Staal is 58.6% vs right-shot opponents (6,477).
Home / Away
Pavelski
Staal
Home
56.4% (5,998)
56.4% (9,518)
Away
52.0% (6,076)
54.4% (9,484)
By Period
Pavelski
Staal
P1
53.5%
55.1%
P2
55.2%
56.0%
P3
53.9%
55.0%
OT
52.3%
55.6%
Final 5 min
54.4%
56.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
54.2%
Staal
42.0%▼
54.0%
55.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 24, 2024 | 3 | 18:25 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Feb 24, 2024 | 2 | 04:12 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 24, 2024 | 1 | 10:02 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 24, 2024 | 1 | 05:52 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Feb 24, 2024 | 1 | 02:33 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 25, 2023 | 3 | 18:24 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Jan 25, 2023 | 3 | 12:52 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Jan 25, 2023 | 2 | 04:51 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Dec 17, 2022 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 17, 2022 | 2 | 10:35 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 17, 2022 | 2 | 04:55 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Dec 17, 2022 | 2 | 03:25 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Dec 17, 2022 | 1 | 18:03 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 24, 2022 | 2 | 19:48 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Nov 30, 2021 | 2 | 16:43 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 30, 2021 | 2 | 05:39 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 30, 2021 | 2 | 03:49 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Apr 27, 2021 | 3 | 07:54 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Apr 27, 2021 | 2 | 16:19 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Apr 26, 2021 | 3 | 06:09 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |