Scouting Report
Jordan Staal holds a +4.8% FO% edge overall. Pavelski wins 53.6% vs left-shot opponents — Staal shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pavelski 52.2% vs Staal 56.8% (-4.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Pavelski 64.8%
Defensive zone
Staal 71.0%
Neutral zone
Staal 56.0%
Result
Jordan Staal favored at 53.1%
46.9%
53.1%
Pavelski
Staal
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
2
(4 meetings)
2
2
Pavelski
Staal
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Pavelski
Staal
2 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Pavelski
Staal
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pavelski
Staal
Edge
Even Strength
52.5% (570)
58.9% (1,041)
-6.4%
Power Play
54.5% (145)
53.4% (73)
+1.1%
Penalty Kill
44.4% (36)
49.1% (171)
-4.7%
On even strength, Staal has a +6.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Staal shoots left. Pavelski is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (588).
Pavelski shoots right. Staal is 59.1% vs right-shot opponents (457).
Home / Away
Pavelski
Staal
Home
55.0% (391)
59.0% (578)
Away
49.7% (360)
55.9% (707)
By Period
Pavelski
Staal
P1
50.8%
57.1%
P2
55.0%
60.9%
P3
52.0%
55.8%
OT
25.0%
20.8%
Final 5 min
56.2%
60.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
52.5%
Staal
46.0%▼
51.0%
57.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 24, 2022 | 2 | 19:48 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Nov 30, 2021 | 2 | 16:43 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 30, 2021 | 2 | 05:39 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 30, 2021 | 2 | 03:49 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |