Scouting Report
Jordan Staal holds a +2.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Staal on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pavelski 53.0% vs Staal 55.3% (-2.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Pavelski 67.7%
Defensive zone
Staal 71.8%
Neutral zone
Pavelski 51.7%
Result
Joe Pavelski favored at 53.8%
53.8%
46.2%
Pavelski
Staal
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
5
(8 meetings)
3
5
Pavelski
Staal
Last 8: Pavelski 3-5 Staal
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Staal
1
3
Pavelski
Staal
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Staal
0
2
Pavelski
Staal
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Pavelski
2
0
Pavelski
Staal
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pavelski
Staal
Edge
Even Strength
52.3% (560)
56.3% (1,115)
-4.0%
Power Play
57.5% (113)
61.2% (67)
-3.7%
Penalty Kill
62.5% (16)
52.1% (292)
+10.4%
On penalty kill, Pavelski has a +10.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Staal shoots left. Pavelski is 52.0% vs left-shot opponents (513).
Pavelski shoots right. Staal is 60.2% vs right-shot opponents (528).
Home / Away
Pavelski
Staal
Home
54.2% (360)
58.3% (705)
Away
52.6% (329)
53.3% (769)
By Period
Pavelski
Staal
P1
54.5%
54.5%
P2
56.7%
58.2%
P3
50.8%
54.1%
OT
30.8%
60.0%
Final 5 min
51.4%
54.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
53.4%
Staal
46.0%▼
51.0%
55.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 25, 2023 | 3 | 18:24 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Jan 25, 2023 | 3 | 12:52 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Jan 25, 2023 | 2 | 04:51 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Dec 17, 2022 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 17, 2022 | 2 | 10:35 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 17, 2022 | 2 | 04:55 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Dec 17, 2022 | 2 | 03:25 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Dec 17, 2022 | 1 | 18:03 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |