Scouting Report
Jordan Staal holds a +7.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Pavelski on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pavelski 50.9% vs Staal 57.6% (-7.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Staal 51.0%
Defensive zone
Staal 86.8%
Neutral zone
Staal 61.0%
Result
Jordan Staal favored at 74.5%
25.5%
74.5%
Pavelski
Staal
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Pavelski
Staal
Last 5: Pavelski 3-2 Staal
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Staal
0
1
Pavelski
Staal
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
3
0
Pavelski
Staal
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Staal
0
1
Pavelski
Staal
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pavelski
Staal
Edge
Even Strength
51.5% (594)
58.9% (1,096)
-7.4%
Power Play
51.7% (87)
68.4% (57)
-16.7%
Penalty Kill
28.6% (14)
51.8% (222)
-23.2%
On penalty kill, Staal has a +23.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Staal shoots left. Pavelski is 50.5% vs left-shot opponents (527).
Pavelski shoots right. Staal is 59.9% vs right-shot opponents (389).
Home / Away
Pavelski
Staal
Home
53.1% (339)
57.0% (646)
Away
49.2% (356)
59.1% (729)
By Period
Pavelski
Staal
P1
53.8%
55.9%
P2
47.8%
55.4%
P3
50.2%
62.0%
OT
71.4%
70.4%
Final 5 min
48.6%
63.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
51.1%
Staal
46.0%▼
51.0%
58.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 24, 2024 | 3 | 18:25 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Feb 24, 2024 | 2 | 04:12 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 24, 2024 | 1 | 10:02 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 24, 2024 | 1 | 05:52 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Feb 24, 2024 | 1 | 02:33 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |