Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +6.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Pavelski on offensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pavelski 54.4% vs Jankowski 48.9% (+6.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Pavelski 79.8%
Defensive zone
Pavelski 85.2%
Neutral zone
Pavelski 73.3%
Result
Joe Pavelski favored at 79.7%
79.7%
20.3%
Pavelski
Jankowski
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
2
(7 meetings)
5
2
Pavelski
Jankowski
Last 7: Pavelski 5-2 Jankowski
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
4
1
Pavelski
Jankowski
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Jankowski
0
1
Pavelski
Jankowski
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Pavelski
1
0
Pavelski
Jankowski
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pavelski
Jankowski
Edge
Even Strength
53.2% (690)
49.5% (746)
+3.7%
Power Play
61.5% (174)
53.1% (32)
+8.4%
Penalty Kill
55.3% (47)
28.1% (32)
+27.2%
On penalty kill, Pavelski has a +27.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Jankowski shoots left. Pavelski is 52.9% vs left-shot opponents (707).
Pavelski shoots right. Jankowski is 44.6% vs right-shot opponents (296).
Home / Away
Pavelski
Jankowski
Home
56.1% (421)
50.4% (399)
Away
53.9% (490)
47.2% (411)
By Period
Pavelski
Jankowski
P1
57.1%
49.4%
P2
55.8%
48.7%
P3
52.5%
48.7%
OT
44.4%
0.0%
Final 5 min
60.8%
52.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
54.9%
Jankowski
58.0%▲
52.0%
48.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 24, 2018 | 3 | 15:02 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 24, 2018 | 3 | 11:21 | Defensive | Mark Jankowski |
| Mar 24, 2018 | 3 | 04:33 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 24, 2018 | 3 | 04:17 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 24, 2018 | 3 | 04:13 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 28, 2017 | 2 | 02:58 | Offensive | Mark Jankowski |
| Dec 28, 2017 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |