Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +3.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Jankowski on defensive-zone draws (88% H2H, 8 meetings). Pavelski wins 53.6% vs left-shot opponents — Jankowski shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pavelski 54.1% vs Jankowski 50.4% (+3.8%)
H2H factor
Jankowski leads 14-11 in 25 meetings
Offensive zone
Pavelski 50.1%
Defensive zone
Jankowski 73.2%
Neutral zone
Jankowski 57.9%
Result
Mark Jankowski favored at 58.7%
41.3%
58.7%
Pavelski
Jankowski
Head-to-Head Record
11
-
14
(25 meetings)
11
14
Pavelski
Jankowski
Last 10: Pavelski 2-8 Jankowski
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
7
6
Pavelski
Jankowski
13 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Jankowski
1
7
Pavelski
Jankowski
8 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Pavelski
3
1
Pavelski
Jankowski
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pavelski
Jankowski
Edge
Even Strength
53.6% (8,791)
51.5% (3,462)
+2.1%
Power Play
58.2% (2,122)
53.7% (95)
+4.5%
Penalty Kill
50.9% (1,138)
42.8% (528)
+8.1%
On penalty kill, Pavelski has a +8.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Jankowski shoots left. Pavelski is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (9,103).
Pavelski shoots right. Jankowski is 47.3% vs right-shot opponents (1,550).
Home / Away
Pavelski
Jankowski
Home
56.4% (5,998)
51.9% (1,940)
Away
52.0% (6,076)
49.1% (2,145)
By Period
Pavelski
Jankowski
P1
53.5%
50.0%
P2
55.2%
51.2%
P3
53.9%
50.2%
OT
52.3%
20.0%
Final 5 min
54.4%
52.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
54.2%
Jankowski
58.0%▲
52.0%
50.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 15, 2024 | 3 | 15:15 | Offensive | Mark Jankowski |
| Feb 15, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mark Jankowski |
| Feb 15, 2024 | 1 | 03:18 | Defensive | Mark Jankowski |
| Apr 3, 2023 | 1 | 18:07 | Defensive | Mark Jankowski |
| Apr 3, 2023 | 1 | 14:42 | Defensive | Mark Jankowski |
| Apr 3, 2023 | 1 | 14:35 | Defensive | Mark Jankowski |
| Dec 22, 2019 | 1 | 13:23 | Defensive | Mark Jankowski |
| Nov 13, 2019 | 3 | 06:38 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 13, 2019 | 2 | 17:13 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 13, 2019 | 1 | 17:40 | Offensive | Mark Jankowski |
| Oct 10, 2019 | 2 | 06:15 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 7, 2019 | 3 | 05:16 | Offensive | Mark Jankowski |
| Feb 7, 2019 | 2 | 19:26 | Offensive | Mark Jankowski |
| Feb 7, 2019 | 2 | 19:10 | Offensive | Mark Jankowski |
| Feb 7, 2019 | 1 | 12:39 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 31, 2018 | 3 | 04:18 | Defensive | Mark Jankowski |
| Dec 31, 2018 | 2 | 18:30 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 11, 2018 | 3 | 12:22 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 24, 2018 | 3 | 15:02 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 24, 2018 | 3 | 11:21 | Defensive | Mark Jankowski |