Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +3.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Pavelski on neutral-zone draws (83% H2H, 6 meetings). Pavelski wins 53.0% vs right-shot opponents — Scheifele shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pavelski 50.9% vs Scheifele 48.3% (+3.0%)
H2H factor
Pavelski leads 7-3 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Pavelski 51.4%
Defensive zone
Pavelski 83.1%
Neutral zone
Pavelski 71.5%
Result
Joe Pavelski favored at 69.8%
69.8%
30.2%
Pavelski
Scheifele
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
3
(10 meetings)
7
3
Pavelski
Scheifele
Last 10: Pavelski 7-3 Scheifele
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Pavelski
Scheifele
2 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Pavelski
Scheifele
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Pavelski
5
1
Pavelski
Scheifele
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pavelski
Scheifele
Edge
Even Strength
51.5% (594)
48.1% (1,045)
+3.4%
Power Play
51.7% (87)
48.6% (181)
+3.1%
Penalty Kill
28.6% (14)
44.4% (27)
-15.8%
On penalty kill, Scheifele has a +15.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Scheifele shoots right. Pavelski is 53.0% vs right-shot opponents (168).
Pavelski shoots right. Scheifele is 44.6% vs right-shot opponents (361).
Home / Away
Pavelski
Scheifele
Home
53.1% (339)
52.7% (630)
Away
49.2% (356)
43.5% (623)
By Period
Pavelski
Scheifele
P1
53.8%
50.3%
P2
47.8%
46.8%
P3
50.2%
47.5%
OT
71.4%
36.4%
Final 5 min
48.6%
51.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
51.1%
Scheifele
50.0%▬
51.0%
48.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 11, 2024 | 3 | 14:25 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Apr 11, 2024 | 2 | 16:51 | Defensive | Mark Scheifele |
| Apr 11, 2024 | 1 | 00:48 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 29, 2024 | 3 | 14:26 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 29, 2024 | 3 | 09:16 | Neutral | Mark Scheifele |
| Feb 29, 2024 | 2 | 00:48 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 29, 2024 | 1 | 18:17 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 29, 2024 | 1 | 16:41 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 29, 2024 | 1 | 06:52 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 28, 2023 | 2 | 19:47 | Offensive | Mark Scheifele |