Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +2.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Duchene on offensive-zone draws (83% H2H, 6 meetings). Pavelski wins 54.4% vs left-shot opponents — Duchene shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pavelski 54.5% vs Duchene 57.0% (-2.9%)
H2H factor
Duchene leads 9-2 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Duchene 55.1%
Defensive zone
Duchene 50.6%
Neutral zone
Pavelski 61.6%
Result
Matt Duchene favored at 51.9%
48.1%
51.9%
Pavelski
Duchene
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
9
(11 meetings)
2
9
Pavelski
Duchene
Last 10: Pavelski 2-8 Duchene
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
1
5
Pavelski
Duchene
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
1
3
Pavelski
Duchene
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Duchene
0
1
Pavelski
Duchene
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pavelski
Duchene
Edge
Even Strength
53.6% (657)
56.5% (527)
-2.9%
Power Play
60.2% (221)
61.6% (185)
-1.4%
Penalty Kill
51.7% (60)
59.3% (27)
-7.6%
On penalty kill, Duchene has a +7.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Duchene shoots left. Pavelski is 54.4% vs left-shot opponents (731).
Pavelski shoots right. Duchene is 59.8% vs right-shot opponents (343).
Home / Away
Pavelski
Duchene
Home
57.4% (470)
57.6% (403)
Away
52.6% (468)
58.3% (336)
By Period
Pavelski
Duchene
P1
53.4%
61.4%
P2
55.6%
58.5%
P3
55.5%
54.9%
OT
62.5%
40.0%
Final 5 min
55.9%
62.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
55.0%
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
57.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 24, 2016 | 3 | 04:39 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 24, 2016 | 2 | 08:07 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 24, 2016 | 2 | 01:29 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 26, 2016 | 3 | 10:25 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 26, 2016 | 3 | 04:24 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 26, 2016 | 1 | 18:56 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 26, 2016 | 1 | 09:58 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 26, 2016 | 1 | 07:11 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 26, 2016 | 1 | 04:07 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Dec 28, 2015 | 3 | 06:51 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Nov 1, 2015 | 3 | 16:07 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |