Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +1.6% FO% edge overall. Pavelski wins 53.6% vs left-shot opponents — Duchene shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pavelski 52.2% vs Duchene 52.8% (-1.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Duchene 67.5%
Defensive zone
Pavelski 74.5%
Neutral zone
Pavelski 62.1%
Result
Joe Pavelski favored at 74.5%
74.5%
25.5%
Pavelski
Duchene
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
0
(1 meetings)
1
0
Pavelski
Duchene
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
1
0
Pavelski
Duchene
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pavelski
Duchene
Edge
Even Strength
52.5% (570)
46.9% (162)
+5.6%
Power Play
54.5% (145)
73.2% (56)
-18.7%
Penalty Kill
44.4% (36)
100.0% (2)
-55.6%
On penalty kill, Duchene has a +55.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Duchene shoots left. Pavelski is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (588).
Pavelski shoots right. Duchene is 58.1% vs right-shot opponents (105).
Home / Away
Pavelski
Duchene
Home
55.0% (391)
58.4% (125)
Away
49.7% (360)
48.4% (95)
By Period
Pavelski
Duchene
P1
50.8%
56.9%
P2
55.0%
52.5%
P3
52.0%
51.9%
OT
25.0%
80.0%
Final 5 min
56.2%
52.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
52.5%
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
54.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 24, 2022 | 3 | 02:32 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |