Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +2.1% FO% edge overall. Pavelski wins 54.6% vs left-shot opponents — Duchene shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pavelski 52.9% vs Duchene 54.9% (-2.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Duchene 74.3%
Defensive zone
Pavelski 55.8%
Neutral zone
Duchene 62.5%
Result
Matt Duchene favored at 63.6%
36.4%
63.6%
Pavelski
Duchene
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
Pavelski
Duchene
Last 5: Pavelski 4-1 Duchene
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Pavelski
Duchene
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
1
0
Pavelski
Duchene
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Pavelski
2
0
Pavelski
Duchene
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pavelski
Duchene
Edge
Even Strength
54.0% (730)
55.4% (1,013)
-1.4%
Power Play
57.1% (156)
56.3% (192)
+0.8%
Penalty Kill
41.7% (103)
41.2% (17)
+0.5%
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Duchene shoots left. Pavelski is 54.6% vs left-shot opponents (713).
Pavelski shoots right. Duchene is 54.1% vs right-shot opponents (399).
Home / Away
Pavelski
Duchene
Home
55.2% (458)
56.2% (642)
Away
51.4% (531)
54.3% (580)
By Period
Pavelski
Duchene
P1
54.0%
56.2%
P2
54.5%
56.5%
P3
50.5%
52.9%
OT
60.0%
64.3%
Final 5 min
52.8%
52.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
53.2%
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
55.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 23, 2019 | 1 | 17:40 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 23, 2019 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 1, 2018 | 2 | 11:17 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 1, 2018 | 1 | 13:48 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 1, 2018 | 1 | 10:12 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |