Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +1.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Pavelski on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pavelski 51.8% vs Duchene 52.9% (-1.8%)
H2H factor
Pavelski leads 7-5 in 12 meetings
Offensive zone
Duchene 60.3%
Defensive zone
Pavelski 62.0%
Neutral zone
Pavelski 59.5%
Result
Matt Duchene favored at 51.2%
48.8%
51.2%
Pavelski
Duchene
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
5
(12 meetings)
7
5
Pavelski
Duchene
Last 10: Pavelski 6-4 Duchene
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
2
5
Pavelski
Duchene
7 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
4
0
Pavelski
Duchene
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Pavelski
1
0
Pavelski
Duchene
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pavelski
Duchene
Edge
Even Strength
53.5% (508)
55.6% (248)
-2.1%
Power Play
51.7% (118)
45.3% (53)
+6.4%
On power play, Pavelski has a +6.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Duchene shoots left. Pavelski is 51.0% vs left-shot opponents (533).
Pavelski shoots right. Duchene is 57.3% vs right-shot opponents (96).
Home / Away
Pavelski
Duchene
Home
54.3% (372)
54.7% (150)
Away
49.4% (324)
53.0% (151)
By Period
Pavelski
Duchene
P1
48.7%
51.1%
P2
57.7%
57.8%
P3
50.2%
52.4%
OT
44.4%
0.0%
Final 5 min
54.0%
53.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
52.0%
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
53.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 24, 2021 | 3 | 10:13 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 24, 2021 | 2 | 14:25 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 24, 2021 | 1 | 05:51 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 22, 2021 | 3 | 11:29 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 22, 2021 | 3 | 01:56 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 22, 2021 | 2 | 15:03 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 22, 2021 | 2 | 11:44 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 22, 2021 | 2 | 06:52 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 22, 2021 | 2 | 04:53 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 22, 2021 | 2 | 00:31 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 22, 2021 | 1 | 16:28 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 22, 2021 | 1 | 16:04 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |