Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +4.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Pavelski on offensive-zone draws (64% H2H, 25 meetings). Pavelski wins 55.9% vs right-shot opponents — Zibanejad shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pavelski 54.1% vs Zibanejad 49.9% (+4.3%)
H2H factor
Pavelski leads 37-32 in 69 meetings
Offensive zone
Pavelski 74.1%
Defensive zone
Pavelski 66.3%
Neutral zone
Pavelski 67.2%
Result
Joe Pavelski favored at 69.4%
69.4%
30.6%
Pavelski
Zibanejad
Head-to-Head Record
37
-
32
(69 meetings)
37
32
Pavelski
Zibanejad
Last 10: Pavelski 4-6 Zibanejad
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
16
9
Pavelski
Zibanejad
25 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Zibanejad
8
14
Pavelski
Zibanejad
22 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Pavelski
13
9
Pavelski
Zibanejad
22 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pavelski
Zibanejad
Edge
Even Strength
53.6% (8,791)
50.8% (11,540)
+2.8%
Power Play
58.2% (2,122)
52.2% (1,848)
+6.0%
Penalty Kill
50.9% (1,138)
41.3% (1,766)
+9.6%
On penalty kill, Pavelski has a +9.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Zibanejad shoots right. Pavelski is 55.9% vs right-shot opponents (2,971).
Pavelski shoots right. Zibanejad is 49.4% vs right-shot opponents (4,628).
Home / Away
Pavelski
Zibanejad
Home
56.4% (5,998)
51.6% (7,444)
Away
52.0% (6,076)
48.3% (7,711)
By Period
Pavelski
Zibanejad
P1
53.5%
50.4%
P2
55.2%
49.7%
P3
53.9%
49.8%
OT
52.3%
48.5%
Final 5 min
54.4%
48.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
54.2%
Zibanejad
46.0%▼
54.0%
49.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 20, 2024 | 1 | 10:31 | Defensive | Mika Zibanejad |
| Nov 20, 2023 | 3 | 02:50 | Defensive | Mika Zibanejad |
| Nov 20, 2023 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mika Zibanejad |
| Jan 12, 2023 | 2 | 15:36 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Oct 29, 2022 | 3 | 16:54 | Defensive | Mika Zibanejad |
| Oct 29, 2022 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Oct 29, 2022 | 1 | 06:45 | Offensive | Mika Zibanejad |
| Oct 29, 2022 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 12, 2022 | 3 | 13:06 | Defensive | Mika Zibanejad |
| Mar 12, 2022 | 2 | 00:47 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 10, 2020 | 3 | 19:01 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 10, 2020 | 3 | 13:32 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 10, 2020 | 3 | 05:37 | Offensive | Mika Zibanejad |
| Mar 10, 2020 | 3 | 03:30 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 10, 2020 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 3, 2020 | 3 | 19:00 | Offensive | Mika Zibanejad |
| Feb 3, 2020 | 3 | 18:34 | Offensive | Mika Zibanejad |
| Feb 3, 2020 | 3 | 14:25 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 3, 2020 | 3 | 02:28 | Offensive | Mika Zibanejad |
| Feb 3, 2020 | 2 | 18:14 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |