Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +1.8% FO% edge overall. Pavelski wins 53.0% vs right-shot opponents — Zibanejad shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pavelski 50.9% vs Zibanejad 49.3% (+1.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Zibanejad 65.8%
Defensive zone
Zibanejad 65.1%
Neutral zone
Zibanejad 66.2%
Result
Mika Zibanejad favored at 65.5%
34.5%
65.5%
Pavelski
Zibanejad
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
3
(3 meetings)
0
3
Pavelski
Zibanejad
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Zibanejad
0
2
Pavelski
Zibanejad
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Zibanejad
0
1
Pavelski
Zibanejad
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pavelski
Zibanejad
Edge
Even Strength
51.5% (594)
50.9% (913)
+0.6%
Power Play
51.7% (87)
59.0% (39)
-7.3%
Penalty Kill
28.6% (14)
37.5% (160)
-8.9%
On penalty kill, Zibanejad has a +8.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Zibanejad shoots right. Pavelski is 53.0% vs right-shot opponents (168).
Pavelski shoots right. Zibanejad is 52.4% vs right-shot opponents (275).
Home / Away
Pavelski
Zibanejad
Home
53.1% (339)
51.1% (536)
Away
49.2% (356)
47.6% (576)
By Period
Pavelski
Zibanejad
P1
53.8%
50.1%
P2
47.8%
47.3%
P3
50.2%
50.7%
OT
71.4%
45.0%
Final 5 min
48.6%
48.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
51.1%
Zibanejad
50.0%▼
51.5%
49.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 20, 2024 | 1 | 10:31 | Defensive | Mika Zibanejad |
| Nov 20, 2023 | 3 | 02:50 | Defensive | Mika Zibanejad |
| Nov 20, 2023 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mika Zibanejad |