Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +3.9% FO% edge overall. Pavelski wins 57.4% vs right-shot opponents — Zibanejad shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pavelski 53.0% vs Zibanejad 49.5% (+3.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Pavelski 78.0%
Defensive zone
Zibanejad 50.3%
Neutral zone
Pavelski 60.2%
Result
Joe Pavelski favored at 65.2%
65.2%
34.8%
Pavelski
Zibanejad
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Pavelski
Zibanejad
Last 5: Pavelski 3-2 Zibanejad
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Pavelski
Zibanejad
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Zibanejad
0
1
Pavelski
Zibanejad
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Pavelski
2
0
Pavelski
Zibanejad
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pavelski
Zibanejad
Edge
Even Strength
52.3% (560)
50.1% (1,051)
+2.2%
Power Play
57.5% (113)
58.3% (120)
-0.8%
Penalty Kill
62.5% (16)
41.9% (227)
+20.6%
On penalty kill, Pavelski has a +20.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Zibanejad shoots right. Pavelski is 57.4% vs right-shot opponents (176).
Pavelski shoots right. Zibanejad is 50.1% vs right-shot opponents (369).
Home / Away
Pavelski
Zibanejad
Home
54.2% (360)
49.0% (681)
Away
52.6% (329)
49.9% (717)
By Period
Pavelski
Zibanejad
P1
54.5%
49.9%
P2
56.7%
47.6%
P3
50.8%
51.1%
OT
30.8%
48.3%
Final 5 min
51.4%
50.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
53.4%
Zibanejad
50.0%▼
51.5%
49.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 12, 2023 | 2 | 15:36 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Oct 29, 2022 | 3 | 16:54 | Defensive | Mika Zibanejad |
| Oct 29, 2022 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Oct 29, 2022 | 1 | 06:45 | Offensive | Mika Zibanejad |
| Oct 29, 2022 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |