Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (51.1% vs 50.3%). Look for Backlund on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pavelski 50.9% vs Backlund 50.3% (+0.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Pavelski 62.5%
Defensive zone
Backlund 79.3%
Neutral zone
Backlund 53.8%
Result
Mikael Backlund favored at 52.6%
47.4%
52.6%
Pavelski
Backlund
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
5
(6 meetings)
1
5
Pavelski
Backlund
Last 6: Pavelski 1-5 Backlund
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Pavelski
Backlund
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Backlund
0
1
Pavelski
Backlund
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Backlund
0
3
Pavelski
Backlund
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pavelski
Backlund
Edge
Even Strength
51.5% (594)
51.0% (1,205)
+0.5%
Power Play
51.7% (87)
59.3% (108)
-7.6%
Penalty Kill
28.6% (14)
42.3% (234)
-13.7%
On penalty kill, Backlund has a +13.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Backlund shoots left. Pavelski is 50.5% vs left-shot opponents (527).
Pavelski shoots right. Backlund is 53.8% vs right-shot opponents (535).
Home / Away
Pavelski
Backlund
Home
53.1% (339)
51.2% (782)
Away
49.2% (356)
49.4% (765)
By Period
Pavelski
Backlund
P1
53.8%
51.5%
P2
47.8%
49.8%
P3
50.2%
49.9%
OT
71.4%
37.5%
Final 5 min
48.6%
50.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
51.1%
Backlund
52.0%▲
48.0%
50.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 24, 2023 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Nov 1, 2023 | 3 | 13:39 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 1, 2023 | 3 | 05:06 | Offensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Nov 1, 2023 | 2 | 19:48 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Nov 1, 2023 | 2 | 17:45 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Nov 1, 2023 | 1 | 09:01 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |