Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +2.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Backlund on defensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pavelski 53.0% vs Backlund 50.8% (+2.5%)
H2H factor
Backlund leads 7-5 in 12 meetings
Offensive zone
Pavelski 57.9%
Defensive zone
Backlund 64.4%
Neutral zone
Backlund 55.6%
Result
Mikael Backlund favored at 58.1%
41.9%
58.1%
Pavelski
Backlund
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
7
(12 meetings)
5
7
Pavelski
Backlund
Last 10: Pavelski 5-5 Backlund
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
1
0
Pavelski
Backlund
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Backlund
1
4
Pavelski
Backlund
5 total
Neutral Zone
Even
3
3
Pavelski
Backlund
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pavelski
Backlund
Edge
Even Strength
52.3% (560)
51.9% (1,083)
+0.4%
Power Play
57.5% (113)
51.7% (120)
+5.8%
Penalty Kill
62.5% (16)
44.3% (183)
+18.2%
On penalty kill, Pavelski has a +18.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Backlund shoots left. Pavelski is 52.0% vs left-shot opponents (513).
Pavelski shoots right. Backlund is 48.9% vs right-shot opponents (562).
Home / Away
Pavelski
Backlund
Home
54.2% (360)
51.9% (673)
Away
52.6% (329)
49.9% (713)
By Period
Pavelski
Backlund
P1
54.5%
51.4%
P2
56.7%
50.5%
P3
50.8%
51.4%
OT
30.8%
35.0%
Final 5 min
51.4%
50.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
53.4%
Backlund
52.0%▲
48.0%
50.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 18, 2023 | 3 | 12:32 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Mar 18, 2023 | 2 | 19:56 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Mar 18, 2023 | 2 | 15:04 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 18, 2023 | 2 | 04:27 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 18, 2023 | 2 | 03:29 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Mar 18, 2023 | 2 | 00:19 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 18, 2023 | 1 | 09:02 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 18, 2023 | 1 | 06:29 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Mar 6, 2023 | 3 | 19:53 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 6, 2023 | 3 | 07:52 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Mar 6, 2023 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Jan 14, 2023 | 1 | 02:31 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |