Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +1.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Pavelski on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Pavelski wins 53.6% vs left-shot opponents — Bonino shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pavelski 52.2% vs Bonino 51.2% (+1.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Pavelski 76.5%
Defensive zone
Bonino 73.5%
Neutral zone
Bonino 50.8%
Result
Joe Pavelski favored at 64.0%
64.0%
36.0%
Pavelski
Bonino
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
2
(4 meetings)
2
2
Pavelski
Bonino
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
2
1
Pavelski
Bonino
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Bonino
0
1
Pavelski
Bonino
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pavelski
Bonino
Edge
Even Strength
52.5% (570)
51.7% (777)
+0.8%
Power Play
54.5% (145)
60.0% (50)
-5.5%
Penalty Kill
44.4% (36)
43.9% (98)
+0.5%
On power play, Bonino has a +5.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Bonino shoots left. Pavelski is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (588).
Pavelski shoots right. Bonino is 56.1% vs right-shot opponents (296).
Home / Away
Pavelski
Bonino
Home
55.0% (391)
48.2% (461)
Away
49.7% (360)
54.5% (464)
By Period
Pavelski
Bonino
P1
50.8%
54.1%
P2
55.0%
49.7%
P3
52.0%
50.7%
OT
25.0%
40.0%
Final 5 min
56.2%
50.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
52.5%
Bonino
46.0%▼
47.5%
51.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 2, 2022 | 3 | 00:06 | Defensive | Nick Bonino |
| Dec 11, 2021 | 2 | 15:30 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 11, 2021 | 2 | 13:09 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 11, 2021 | 2 | 04:49 | Offensive | Nick Bonino |