Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +4.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Pavelski on offensive-zone draws (63% H2H, 56 meetings). Pavelski wins 53.6% vs left-shot opponents — Bonino shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pavelski 54.1% vs Bonino 50.0% (+4.2%)
H2H factor
Pavelski leads 61-52 in 113 meetings
Offensive zone
Pavelski 85.9%
Defensive zone
Pavelski 57.5%
Neutral zone
Pavelski 69.1%
Result
Joe Pavelski favored at 74.4%
74.4%
25.6%
Pavelski
Bonino
Head-to-Head Record
61
-
52
(113 meetings)
61
52
Pavelski
Bonino
Last 10: Pavelski 5-5 Bonino
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
35
21
Pavelski
Bonino
56 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Bonino
13
17
Pavelski
Bonino
30 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Bonino
13
14
Pavelski
Bonino
27 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pavelski
Bonino
Edge
Even Strength
53.6% (8,791)
50.6% (8,315)
+3.0%
Power Play
58.2% (2,122)
54.1% (972)
+4.1%
Penalty Kill
50.9% (1,138)
44.6% (1,693)
+6.3%
On penalty kill, Pavelski has a +6.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Bonino shoots left. Pavelski is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (9,103).
Pavelski shoots right. Bonino is 51.4% vs right-shot opponents (4,070).
Home / Away
Pavelski
Bonino
Home
56.4% (5,998)
51.2% (5,507)
Away
52.0% (6,076)
48.8% (5,480)
By Period
Pavelski
Bonino
P1
53.5%
50.6%
P2
55.2%
48.5%
P3
53.9%
51.1%
OT
52.3%
45.7%
Final 5 min
54.4%
50.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
54.2%
Bonino
46.0%▼
47.5%
50.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 20, 2023 | 3 | 08:24 | Neutral | Nick Bonino |
| Nov 20, 2023 | 1 | 12:52 | Defensive | Nick Bonino |
| Jan 18, 2023 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nick Bonino |
| Jan 18, 2023 | 2 | 19:44 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 11, 2022 | 3 | 18:22 | Defensive | Nick Bonino |
| Nov 11, 2022 | 3 | 02:20 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 11, 2022 | 3 | 00:29 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 11, 2022 | 1 | 16:23 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Apr 2, 2022 | 3 | 00:06 | Defensive | Nick Bonino |
| Dec 11, 2021 | 2 | 15:30 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 11, 2021 | 2 | 13:09 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 11, 2021 | 2 | 04:49 | Offensive | Nick Bonino |
| Mar 7, 2020 | 3 | 17:17 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 7, 2020 | 2 | 16:54 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 7, 2020 | 2 | 07:59 | Offensive | Nick Bonino |
| Mar 7, 2020 | 1 | 17:56 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 7, 2020 | 1 | 15:32 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 5, 2020 | 3 | 15:47 | Offensive | Nick Bonino |
| Mar 5, 2020 | 3 | 01:23 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 5, 2020 | 2 | 07:47 | Defensive | Nick Bonino |