Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +5.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Pavelski on defensive-zone draws (86% H2H, 7 meetings). Pavelski wins 53.6% vs left-shot opponents — Foligno shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pavelski 54.1% vs Foligno 48.6% (+5.6%)
H2H factor
Pavelski leads 16-6 in 22 meetings
Offensive zone
Pavelski 87.3%
Defensive zone
Pavelski 95.1%
Neutral zone
Pavelski 95.1%
Result
Joe Pavelski favored at 91.6%
91.6%
8.4%
Pavelski
Foligno
Head-to-Head Record
16
-
6
(22 meetings)
16
6
Pavelski
Foligno
Last 10: Pavelski 6-4 Foligno
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
6
4
Pavelski
Foligno
10 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
6
1
Pavelski
Foligno
7 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Pavelski
4
1
Pavelski
Foligno
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pavelski
Foligno
Edge
Even Strength
53.6% (8,791)
48.3% (2,810)
+5.3%
Power Play
58.2% (2,122)
52.3% (730)
+5.9%
Penalty Kill
50.9% (1,138)
44.0% (455)
+6.9%
On penalty kill, Pavelski has a +6.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Foligno shoots left. Pavelski is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (9,103).
Pavelski shoots right. Foligno is 46.6% vs right-shot opponents (1,501).
Home / Away
Pavelski
Foligno
Home
56.4% (5,998)
49.9% (2,013)
Away
52.0% (6,076)
47.2% (1,984)
By Period
Pavelski
Foligno
P1
53.5%
47.6%
P2
55.2%
50.4%
P3
53.9%
48.3%
OT
52.3%
29.7%
Final 5 min
54.4%
52.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
54.2%
Foligno
54.0%▲
48.0%
48.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 6, 2024 | 1 | 15:59 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Apr 6, 2024 | 1 | 10:39 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Apr 6, 2024 | 1 | 01:08 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 31, 2023 | 1 | 16:40 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 31, 2023 | 1 | 03:41 | Offensive | Nick Foligno |
| Dec 29, 2023 | 3 | 19:52 | Offensive | Nick Foligno |
| Dec 29, 2023 | 3 | 15:42 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 29, 2023 | 2 | 05:27 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 14, 2021 | 2 | 14:40 | Offensive | Nick Foligno |
| Mar 14, 2021 | 1 | 18:36 | Offensive | Nick Foligno |
| Feb 4, 2021 | 3 | 18:18 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 23, 2019 | 2 | 15:17 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 4, 2018 | 3 | 18:00 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 4, 2018 | 2 | 00:15 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 4, 2018 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 4, 2018 | 1 | 12:42 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 4, 2018 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nick Foligno |
| Oct 15, 2016 | 3 | 06:36 | Defensive | Nick Foligno |
| Nov 22, 2015 | 1 | 19:26 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Oct 23, 2014 | 3 | 11:04 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |