Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +2.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Pavelski on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings). Pavelski wins 53.6% vs left-shot opponents — Paul shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pavelski 52.2% vs Paul 50.4% (+2.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Pavelski 92.6%
Defensive zone
Paul 54.2%
Neutral zone
Pavelski 67.2%
Result
Joe Pavelski favored at 84.8%
84.8%
15.2%
Pavelski
Paul
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
0
(6 meetings)
6
0
Pavelski
Paul
Last 6: Pavelski 6-0 Paul
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
5
0
Pavelski
Paul
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
1
0
Pavelski
Paul
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pavelski
Paul
Edge
Even Strength
52.5% (570)
53.0% (644)
-0.5%
Power Play
54.5% (145)
37.5% (24)
+17.0%
Penalty Kill
44.4% (36)
42.9% (177)
+1.5%
On power play, Pavelski has a +17.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Paul shoots left. Pavelski is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (588).
Pavelski shoots right. Paul is 47.2% vs right-shot opponents (386).
Home / Away
Pavelski
Paul
Home
55.0% (391)
52.5% (516)
Away
49.7% (360)
47.1% (329)
By Period
Pavelski
Paul
P1
50.8%
47.6%
P2
55.0%
48.4%
P3
52.0%
54.5%
OT
25.0%
100.0%
Final 5 min
56.2%
49.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
52.5%
Paul
54.0%▬
54.0%
50.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 12, 2022 | 3 | 09:06 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Oct 29, 2021 | 3 | 18:14 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Oct 29, 2021 | 2 | 14:15 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Oct 29, 2021 | 2 | 10:03 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Oct 29, 2021 | 1 | 06:42 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Oct 29, 2021 | 1 | 00:40 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |