Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (53.4% vs 53.7%). Look for Paul on defensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pavelski 53.0% vs Paul 53.4% (-0.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Pavelski 63.5%
Defensive zone
Paul 61.8%
Neutral zone
Paul 55.1%
Result
Nick Paul favored at 59.9%
40.1%
59.9%
Pavelski
Paul
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
6
(7 meetings)
1
6
Pavelski
Paul
Last 7: Pavelski 1-6 Paul
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Paul
1
4
Pavelski
Paul
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Paul
0
2
Pavelski
Paul
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pavelski
Paul
Edge
Even Strength
52.3% (560)
53.8% (753)
-1.5%
Power Play
57.5% (113)
58.9% (90)
-1.4%
Penalty Kill
62.5% (16)
47.4% (78)
+15.1%
On penalty kill, Pavelski has a +15.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Paul shoots left. Pavelski is 52.0% vs left-shot opponents (513).
Pavelski shoots right. Paul is 49.4% vs right-shot opponents (342).
Home / Away
Pavelski
Paul
Home
54.2% (360)
54.2% (450)
Away
52.6% (329)
53.3% (471)
By Period
Pavelski
Paul
P1
54.5%
58.2%
P2
56.7%
50.6%
P3
50.8%
52.9%
OT
30.8%
50.0%
Final 5 min
51.4%
49.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
53.4%
Paul
54.0%▬
54.0%
53.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 15, 2022 | 3 | 17:44 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 15, 2022 | 3 | 10:07 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Nov 15, 2022 | 3 | 10:03 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Nov 15, 2022 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Nov 15, 2022 | 2 | 19:34 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Nov 15, 2022 | 2 | 14:09 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Nov 15, 2022 | 2 | 05:47 | Defensive | Nick Paul |