Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +14.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Pavelski on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Pavelski wins 61.8% vs right-shot opponents — Schmaltz shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pavelski 54.4% vs Schmaltz 41.2% (+14.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Schmaltz 57.0%
Defensive zone
Pavelski 57.0%
Neutral zone
Schmaltz 57.1%
Result
Nick Schmaltz favored at 54.2%
45.8%
54.2%
Pavelski
Schmaltz
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Pavelski
Schmaltz
Last 5: Pavelski 2-3 Schmaltz
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
2
1
Pavelski
Schmaltz
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Schmaltz
0
1
Pavelski
Schmaltz
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Schmaltz
0
1
Pavelski
Schmaltz
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pavelski
Schmaltz
Edge
Even Strength
53.2% (690)
39.5% (658)
+13.7%
Power Play
61.5% (174)
41.3% (92)
+20.2%
Penalty Kill
55.3% (47)
45.1% (51)
+10.2%
On power play, Pavelski has a +20.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Schmaltz shoots right. Pavelski is 61.8% vs right-shot opponents (204).
Pavelski shoots right. Schmaltz is 44.3% vs right-shot opponents (273).
Home / Away
Pavelski
Schmaltz
Home
56.1% (421)
40.8% (424)
Away
53.9% (490)
39.3% (377)
By Period
Pavelski
Schmaltz
P1
57.1%
38.4%
P2
55.8%
40.7%
P3
52.5%
41.0%
OT
44.4%
40.0%
Final 5 min
60.8%
42.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
54.9%
Schmaltz
46.0%▬
45.0%
40.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 26, 2018 | 3 | 04:04 | Defensive | Nick Schmaltz |
| Mar 26, 2018 | 2 | 15:01 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 1, 2018 | 2 | 07:55 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 1, 2018 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nick Schmaltz |
| Feb 23, 2018 | 2 | 09:32 | Offensive | Nick Schmaltz |