Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +10.1% FO% edge overall. Pavelski wins 53.0% vs right-shot opponents — Schmaltz shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pavelski 50.9% vs Schmaltz 42.8% (+10.1%)
Offensive zone
Schmaltz 56.6%
Defensive zone
Pavelski 50.3%
Neutral zone
Schmaltz 50.3%
Result
Nick Schmaltz favored at 52.2%
47.8%
52.2%
Pavelski
Schmaltz
No head-to-head faceoffs recorded
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pavelski
Schmaltz
Edge
Even Strength
51.5% (594)
38.5% (309)
+13.0%
Power Play
51.7% (87)
53.2% (79)
-1.5%
Penalty Kill
28.6% (14)
25.0% (12)
+3.6%
On even strength, Pavelski has a +13.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Schmaltz shoots right. Pavelski is 53.0% vs right-shot opponents (168).
Pavelski shoots right. Schmaltz is 38.5% vs right-shot opponents (91).
Home / Away
Pavelski
Schmaltz
Home
53.1% (339)
38.0% (184)
Away
49.2% (356)
43.5% (216)
By Period
Pavelski
Schmaltz
P1
53.8%
40.3%
P2
47.8%
39.9%
P3
50.2%
40.7%
OT
71.4%
70.0%
Final 5 min
48.6%
41.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
51.1%
Schmaltz
46.0%▬
45.0%
41.0%