Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (53.4% vs 53.9%). Look for Pavelski on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pavelski 53.0% vs Hischier 53.6% (-0.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hischier 51.9%
Defensive zone
Hischier 55.1%
Neutral zone
Hischier 51.8%
Result
Nico Hischier favored at 52.6%
47.4%
52.6%
Pavelski
Hischier
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
5
(9 meetings)
4
5
Pavelski
Hischier
Last 9: Pavelski 4-5 Hischier
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hischier
1
2
Pavelski
Hischier
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hischier
0
2
Pavelski
Hischier
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Pavelski
3
1
Pavelski
Hischier
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pavelski
Hischier
Edge
Even Strength
52.3% (560)
52.4% (1,185)
-0.1%
Power Play
57.5% (113)
57.8% (315)
-0.3%
Penalty Kill
62.5% (16)
57.1% (154)
+5.4%
On penalty kill, Pavelski has a +5.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hischier shoots left. Pavelski is 52.0% vs left-shot opponents (513).
Pavelski shoots right. Hischier is 55.5% vs right-shot opponents (640).
Home / Away
Pavelski
Hischier
Home
54.2% (360)
53.4% (844)
Away
52.6% (329)
54.3% (810)
By Period
Pavelski
Hischier
P1
54.5%
49.7%
P2
56.7%
54.6%
P3
50.8%
56.1%
OT
30.8%
65.5%
Final 5 min
51.4%
54.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
53.4%
Hischier
50.0%▼
56.0%
53.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 27, 2023 | 3 | 09:25 | Offensive | Nico Hischier |
| Jan 27, 2023 | 2 | 16:24 | Offensive | Nico Hischier |
| Jan 27, 2023 | 1 | 16:44 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 27, 2023 | 1 | 13:46 | Defensive | Nico Hischier |
| Dec 13, 2022 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 13, 2022 | 2 | 19:42 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 13, 2022 | 2 | 19:15 | Defensive | Nico Hischier |
| Dec 13, 2022 | 2 | 00:12 | Neutral | Nico Hischier |
| Dec 13, 2022 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |