Scouting Report
Patrice Bergeron holds a +2.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Pavelski on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Pavelski wins 61.8% vs right-shot opponents — Bergeron shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pavelski 54.4% vs Bergeron 56.8% (-2.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Bergeron 64.2%
Defensive zone
Bergeron 60.8%
Neutral zone
Bergeron 68.2%
Result
Patrice Bergeron favored at 64.0%
36.0%
64.0%
Pavelski
Bergeron
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
3
(9 meetings)
6
3
Pavelski
Bergeron
Last 9: Pavelski 6-3 Bergeron
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
4
0
Pavelski
Bergeron
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Bergeron
0
3
Pavelski
Bergeron
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Pavelski
2
0
Pavelski
Bergeron
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pavelski
Bergeron
Edge
Even Strength
53.2% (690)
58.4% (972)
-5.2%
Power Play
61.5% (174)
53.4% (221)
+8.1%
Penalty Kill
55.3% (47)
56.0% (175)
-0.7%
On power play, Pavelski has a +8.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Bergeron shoots right. Pavelski is 61.8% vs right-shot opponents (204).
Pavelski shoots right. Bergeron is 52.9% vs right-shot opponents (456).
Home / Away
Pavelski
Bergeron
Home
56.1% (421)
59.0% (712)
Away
53.9% (490)
55.5% (656)
By Period
Pavelski
Bergeron
P1
57.1%
59.1%
P2
55.8%
60.2%
P3
52.5%
53.0%
OT
44.4%
60.0%
Final 5 min
60.8%
55.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
54.9%
Bergeron
76.0%▲
64.5%
57.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 18, 2017 | 3 | 10:02 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 18, 2017 | 3 | 09:48 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 18, 2017 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Oct 26, 2017 | 3 | 18:43 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Oct 26, 2017 | 3 | 12:45 | Defensive | Patrice Bergeron |
| Oct 26, 2017 | 2 | 10:33 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Oct 26, 2017 | 1 | 17:14 | Defensive | Patrice Bergeron |
| Oct 26, 2017 | 1 | 08:01 | Defensive | Patrice Bergeron |
| Oct 26, 2017 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |