Scouting Report
Patrice Bergeron holds a +7.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Pavelski on offensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Pavelski wins 57.4% vs right-shot opponents — Bergeron shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pavelski 53.0% vs Bergeron 60.5% (-7.7%)
H2H factor
Pavelski leads 6-4 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Bergeron 71.1%
Defensive zone
Bergeron 75.5%
Neutral zone
Bergeron 63.4%
Result
Patrice Bergeron favored at 72.1%
27.9%
72.1%
Pavelski
Bergeron
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
4
(10 meetings)
6
4
Pavelski
Bergeron
Last 10: Pavelski 6-4 Bergeron
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
4
1
Pavelski
Bergeron
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Bergeron
1
3
Pavelski
Bergeron
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Pavelski
1
0
Pavelski
Bergeron
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pavelski
Bergeron
Edge
Even Strength
52.3% (560)
62.5% (1,109)
-10.2%
Power Play
57.5% (113)
62.2% (352)
-4.7%
Penalty Kill
62.5% (16)
53.5% (245)
+9.0%
On even strength, Bergeron has a +10.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Bergeron shoots right. Pavelski is 57.4% vs right-shot opponents (176).
Pavelski shoots right. Bergeron is 56.1% vs right-shot opponents (528).
Home / Away
Pavelski
Bergeron
Home
54.2% (360)
61.9% (917)
Away
52.6% (329)
60.2% (789)
By Period
Pavelski
Bergeron
P1
54.5%
60.8%
P2
56.7%
60.3%
P3
50.8%
63.0%
OT
30.8%
51.5%
Final 5 min
51.4%
58.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
53.4%
Bergeron
76.0%▲
64.5%
61.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 14, 2023 | OT | 01:45 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 14, 2023 | OT | 01:38 | Defensive | Patrice Bergeron |
| Feb 14, 2023 | 3 | 15:46 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 14, 2023 | 3 | 13:05 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 14, 2023 | 2 | 12:05 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 14, 2023 | 2 | 00:24 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Oct 25, 2022 | 3 | 16:45 | Defensive | Patrice Bergeron |
| Oct 25, 2022 | 3 | 16:25 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Oct 25, 2022 | 2 | 10:15 | Defensive | Patrice Bergeron |
| Oct 25, 2022 | 1 | 16:23 | Offensive | Patrice Bergeron |