Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +1.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Pavelski on defensive-zone draws (73% H2H, 11 meetings). Pavelski wins 54.9% vs left-shot opponents — Stastny shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pavelski 55.5% vs Stastny 53.8% (+1.9%)
H2H factor
Pavelski leads 18-8 in 26 meetings
Offensive zone
Pavelski 75.0%
Defensive zone
Pavelski 73.5%
Neutral zone
Pavelski 69.4%
Result
Joe Pavelski favored at 72.9%
72.9%
27.1%
Pavelski
Stastny
Head-to-Head Record
18
-
8
(26 meetings)
18
8
Pavelski
Stastny
Last 10: Pavelski 6-4 Stastny
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
5
3
Pavelski
Stastny
8 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
8
3
Pavelski
Stastny
11 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Pavelski
5
2
Pavelski
Stastny
7 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pavelski
Stastny
Edge
Even Strength
55.7% (849)
53.2% (995)
+2.5%
Power Play
60.0% (205)
57.6% (158)
+2.4%
Penalty Kill
52.0% (152)
61.4% (57)
-9.4%
On penalty kill, Stastny has a +9.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stastny shoots left. Pavelski is 54.9% vs left-shot opponents (854).
Pavelski shoots right. Stastny is 57.4% vs right-shot opponents (472).
Home / Away
Pavelski
Stastny
Home
59.2% (622)
55.1% (586)
Away
52.6% (584)
53.2% (624)
By Period
Pavelski
Stastny
P1
54.1%
54.7%
P2
56.4%
53.1%
P3
56.4%
54.2%
OT
65.6%
60.0%
Final 5 min
54.8%
50.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
56.0%
Stastny
52.0%▼
55.5%
54.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 11, 2014 | 2 | 18:30 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 29, 2014 | 3 | 19:47 | Defensive | Paul Stastny |
| Mar 29, 2014 | 3 | 14:21 | Defensive | Paul Stastny |
| Mar 29, 2014 | 3 | 03:15 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 29, 2014 | 2 | 14:01 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 29, 2014 | 2 | 06:32 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 29, 2014 | 1 | 15:35 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 29, 2014 | 1 | 15:16 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 29, 2014 | 1 | 06:46 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| Jan 4, 2014 | 3 | 09:59 | Defensive | Paul Stastny |
| Jan 4, 2014 | 3 | 09:54 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 4, 2014 | 3 | 06:05 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 4, 2014 | 2 | 18:21 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| Jan 4, 2014 | 2 | 18:14 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| Jan 4, 2014 | 2 | 16:23 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 4, 2014 | 2 | 04:53 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 4, 2014 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Paul Stastny |
| Jan 4, 2014 | 1 | 14:44 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 23, 2013 | OT | 04:52 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 23, 2013 | 3 | 16:05 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |