Scouting Report
Paul Stastny holds a +4.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Stastny on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Pavelski wins 53.6% vs left-shot opponents — Stastny shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pavelski 52.2% vs Stastny 55.4% (-4.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Pavelski 51.4%
Defensive zone
Stastny 62.0%
Neutral zone
Stastny 59.8%
Result
Paul Stastny favored at 58.0%
42.0%
58.0%
Pavelski
Stastny
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
4
(9 meetings)
5
4
Pavelski
Stastny
Last 9: Pavelski 5-4 Stastny
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
2
0
Pavelski
Stastny
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stastny
0
3
Pavelski
Stastny
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Pavelski
3
1
Pavelski
Stastny
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pavelski
Stastny
Edge
Even Strength
52.5% (570)
59.2% (370)
-6.7%
Power Play
54.5% (145)
40.9% (44)
+13.6%
Penalty Kill
44.4% (36)
51.7% (58)
-7.3%
On power play, Pavelski has a +13.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stastny shoots left. Pavelski is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (588).
Pavelski shoots right. Stastny is 58.6% vs right-shot opponents (186).
Home / Away
Pavelski
Stastny
Home
55.0% (391)
57.7% (215)
Away
49.7% (360)
55.6% (257)
By Period
Pavelski
Stastny
P1
50.8%
57.7%
P2
55.0%
54.2%
P3
52.0%
57.7%
OT
25.0%
60.0%
Final 5 min
56.2%
57.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
52.5%
Stastny
52.0%▼
55.5%
56.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 4, 2022 | 3 | 12:03 | Defensive | Paul Stastny |
| Mar 4, 2022 | 1 | 14:58 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 4, 2022 | 1 | 07:10 | Defensive | Paul Stastny |
| Feb 23, 2022 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 23, 2022 | 2 | 06:27 | Defensive | Paul Stastny |
| Feb 23, 2022 | 2 | 02:31 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 11, 2022 | 3 | 00:24 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 11, 2022 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Paul Stastny |
| Feb 11, 2022 | 2 | 17:21 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |