Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (54.2% vs 55.1%). Look for Pavelski on neutral-zone draws (61% H2H, 36 meetings). Pavelski wins 53.6% vs left-shot opponents — Stastny shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pavelski 54.1% vs Stastny 55.1% (-0.9%)
H2H factor
Pavelski leads 73-69 in 142 meetings
Offensive zone
Stastny 57.0%
Defensive zone
Stastny 56.9%
Neutral zone
Stastny 57.0%
Result
Paul Stastny favored at 56.9%
43.1%
56.9%
Pavelski
Stastny
Head-to-Head Record
73
-
69
(142 meetings)
73
69
Pavelski
Stastny
Last 10: Pavelski 5-5 Stastny
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
29
27
Pavelski
Stastny
56 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stastny
22
28
Pavelski
Stastny
50 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Pavelski
22
14
Pavelski
Stastny
36 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pavelski
Stastny
Edge
Even Strength
53.6% (8,791)
54.6% (10,616)
-1.0%
Power Play
58.2% (2,122)
59.1% (1,994)
-0.9%
Penalty Kill
50.9% (1,138)
52.9% (1,119)
-2.0%
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stastny shoots left. Pavelski is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (9,103).
Pavelski shoots right. Stastny is 58.4% vs right-shot opponents (4,907).
Home / Away
Pavelski
Stastny
Home
56.4% (5,998)
55.9% (7,073)
Away
52.0% (6,076)
54.3% (6,705)
By Period
Pavelski
Stastny
P1
53.5%
56.3%
P2
55.2%
55.4%
P3
53.9%
53.5%
OT
52.3%
62.9%
Final 5 min
54.4%
55.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
54.2%
Stastny
52.0%▼
55.5%
55.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 17, 2022 | 2 | 18:18 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| Mar 4, 2022 | 3 | 12:03 | Defensive | Paul Stastny |
| Mar 4, 2022 | 1 | 14:58 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 4, 2022 | 1 | 07:10 | Defensive | Paul Stastny |
| Feb 23, 2022 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 23, 2022 | 2 | 06:27 | Defensive | Paul Stastny |
| Feb 23, 2022 | 2 | 02:31 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 11, 2022 | 3 | 00:24 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 11, 2022 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Paul Stastny |
| Feb 11, 2022 | 2 | 17:21 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 13, 2019 | 3 | 18:43 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 13, 2019 | 3 | 14:49 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 13, 2019 | 2 | 12:04 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| Dec 13, 2019 | 2 | 09:37 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| Nov 25, 2019 | 2 | 01:08 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 10, 2019 | 3 | 17:14 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| Jan 10, 2019 | 3 | 16:16 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| Jan 10, 2019 | 2 | 05:42 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| Jan 10, 2019 | 2 | 02:27 | Defensive | Paul Stastny |
| Jan 10, 2019 | 2 | 02:21 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |