Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (54.9% vs 54.9%). Look for Pavelski on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pavelski 54.4% vs Stastny 54.6% (+0.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Pavelski 56.5%
Defensive zone
Pavelski 58.9%
Neutral zone
Stastny 55.9%
Result
Joe Pavelski favored at 51.5%
51.5%
48.5%
Pavelski
Stastny
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
3
(9 meetings)
6
3
Pavelski
Stastny
Last 9: Pavelski 6-3 Stastny
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
2
1
Pavelski
Stastny
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
2
0
Pavelski
Stastny
2 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
Pavelski
Stastny
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pavelski
Stastny
Edge
Even Strength
53.2% (690)
54.8% (1,130)
-1.6%
Power Play
61.5% (174)
59.1% (235)
+2.4%
Penalty Kill
55.3% (47)
49.3% (150)
+6.0%
On penalty kill, Pavelski has a +6.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stastny shoots left. Pavelski is 52.9% vs left-shot opponents (707).
Pavelski shoots right. Stastny is 54.9% vs right-shot opponents (568).
Home / Away
Pavelski
Stastny
Home
56.1% (421)
55.5% (803)
Away
53.9% (490)
54.2% (712)
By Period
Pavelski
Stastny
P1
57.1%
57.4%
P2
55.8%
52.5%
P3
52.5%
54.3%
OT
44.4%
69.6%
Final 5 min
60.8%
52.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
54.9%
Stastny
52.0%▼
55.5%
54.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 20, 2018 | 3 | 19:00 | Neutral | Paul Stastny |
| Feb 20, 2018 | 3 | 17:23 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 20, 2018 | 3 | 15:56 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 20, 2018 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 20, 2018 | 2 | 17:59 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 20, 2018 | 2 | 00:22 | Neutral | Paul Stastny |
| Feb 20, 2018 | 1 | 18:21 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 20, 2018 | 1 | 10:39 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 20, 2018 | 1 | 07:10 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |