Scouting Report
Paul Stastny holds a +1.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Stastny on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Pavelski wins 54.6% vs left-shot opponents — Stastny shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pavelski 52.9% vs Stastny 54.2% (-1.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stastny 53.0%
Defensive zone
Stastny 53.0%
Neutral zone
Stastny 54.4%
Result
Paul Stastny favored at 53.0%
47.0%
53.0%
Pavelski
Stastny
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Pavelski
Stastny
Last 5: Pavelski 1-4 Stastny
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stastny
1
3
Pavelski
Stastny
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stastny
0
1
Pavelski
Stastny
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pavelski
Stastny
Edge
Even Strength
54.0% (730)
52.8% (657)
+1.2%
Power Play
57.1% (156)
61.0% (118)
-3.9%
Penalty Kill
41.7% (103)
61.1% (72)
-19.4%
On penalty kill, Stastny has a +19.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stastny shoots left. Pavelski is 54.6% vs left-shot opponents (713).
Pavelski shoots right. Stastny is 58.4% vs right-shot opponents (286).
Home / Away
Pavelski
Stastny
Home
55.2% (458)
53.0% (464)
Away
51.4% (531)
56.7% (383)
By Period
Pavelski
Stastny
P1
54.0%
47.9%
P2
54.5%
59.6%
P3
50.5%
54.9%
OT
60.0%
55.6%
Final 5 min
52.8%
57.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
53.2%
Stastny
52.0%▼
55.5%
54.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 10, 2019 | 3 | 17:14 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| Jan 10, 2019 | 3 | 16:16 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| Jan 10, 2019 | 2 | 05:42 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| Jan 10, 2019 | 2 | 02:27 | Defensive | Paul Stastny |
| Jan 10, 2019 | 2 | 02:21 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |