Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +13.7% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pavelski 50.9% vs Buchnevich 41.5% (+13.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Pavelski 81.2%
Defensive zone
Pavelski 83.3%
Neutral zone
Pavelski 83.8%
Result
Joe Pavelski favored at 82.5%
82.5%
17.5%
Pavelski
Buchnevich
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
0
(2 meetings)
2
0
Pavelski
Buchnevich
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
1
0
Pavelski
Buchnevich
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Pavelski
1
0
Pavelski
Buchnevich
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pavelski
Buchnevich
Edge
Even Strength
51.5% (594)
37.6% (197)
+13.9%
Power Play
51.7% (87)
50.0% (6)
+1.7%
Penalty Kill
28.6% (14)
0.0% (3)
+28.6%
On penalty kill, Pavelski has a +28.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Buchnevich shoots left. Pavelski is 50.5% vs left-shot opponents (527).
Pavelski shoots right. Buchnevich is 34.4% vs right-shot opponents (64).
Home / Away
Pavelski
Buchnevich
Home
53.1% (339)
43.0% (114)
Away
49.2% (356)
30.4% (92)
By Period
Pavelski
Buchnevich
P1
53.8%
40.0%
P2
47.8%
35.7%
P3
50.2%
35.7%
Final 5 min
48.6%
48.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
51.1%
Buchnevich
36.0%▼
38.5%
37.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 17, 2024 | 3 | 03:22 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 27, 2023 | 3 | 05:16 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |