Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +4.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Holmberg on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pavelski 50.9% vs Holmberg 47.5% (+4.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Pavelski 50.4%
Defensive zone
Holmberg 56.8%
Neutral zone
Pavelski 55.2%
Result
Joe Pavelski favored at 50.0%
50.0%
50.0%
Pavelski
Holmberg
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
3
(6 meetings)
3
3
Pavelski
Holmberg
Last 6: Pavelski 3-3 Holmberg
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Holmberg
1
3
Pavelski
Holmberg
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
1
0
Pavelski
Holmberg
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Pavelski
1
0
Pavelski
Holmberg
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pavelski
Holmberg
Edge
Even Strength
51.5% (594)
45.7% (175)
+5.8%
Power Play
51.7% (87)
75.0% (8)
-23.3%
Penalty Kill
28.6% (14)
40.0% (20)
-11.4%
On power play, Holmberg has a +23.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Holmberg shoots left. Pavelski is 50.5% vs left-shot opponents (527).
Pavelski shoots right. Holmberg is 50.7% vs right-shot opponents (69).
Home / Away
Pavelski
Holmberg
Home
53.1% (339)
50.9% (112)
Away
49.2% (356)
40.7% (91)
By Period
Pavelski
Holmberg
P1
53.8%
47.1%
P2
47.8%
45.7%
P3
50.2%
46.2%
Final 5 min
48.6%
38.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
51.1%
Holmberg
40.0%▼
46.5%
46.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 7, 2024 | 3 | 08:59 | Offensive | Pontus Holmberg |
| Feb 7, 2024 | 3 | 05:25 | Offensive | Pontus Holmberg |
| Feb 7, 2024 | 3 | 05:13 | Offensive | Pontus Holmberg |
| Feb 7, 2024 | 2 | 13:22 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Oct 26, 2023 | 3 | 03:34 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Oct 26, 2023 | 2 | 19:34 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |