Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +8.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Pavelski on defensive-zone draws (64% H2H, 28 meetings). Pavelski wins 55.9% vs right-shot opponents — Gagner shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pavelski 54.1% vs Gagner 46.0% (+8.3%)
H2H factor
Pavelski leads 34-30 in 64 meetings
Offensive zone
Pavelski 61.6%
Defensive zone
Pavelski 79.6%
Neutral zone
Pavelski 73.3%
Result
Joe Pavelski favored at 72.6%
72.6%
27.4%
Pavelski
Gagner
Head-to-Head Record
34
-
30
(64 meetings)
34
30
Pavelski
Gagner
Last 10: Pavelski 4-6 Gagner
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Gagner
7
12
Pavelski
Gagner
19 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
18
10
Pavelski
Gagner
28 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Pavelski
9
8
Pavelski
Gagner
17 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pavelski
Gagner
Edge
Even Strength
53.6% (8,791)
45.4% (4,699)
+8.2%
Power Play
58.2% (2,122)
51.5% (928)
+6.7%
Penalty Kill
50.9% (1,138)
35.0% (226)
+15.9%
On penalty kill, Pavelski has a +15.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gagner shoots right. Pavelski is 55.9% vs right-shot opponents (2,971).
Pavelski shoots right. Gagner is 47.2% vs right-shot opponents (1,684).
Home / Away
Pavelski
Gagner
Home
56.4% (5,998)
48.7% (3,025)
Away
52.0% (6,076)
43.0% (2,843)
By Period
Pavelski
Gagner
P1
53.5%
44.6%
P2
55.2%
46.1%
P3
53.9%
47.3%
OT
52.3%
42.0%
Final 5 min
54.4%
45.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
54.2%
Gagner
48.0%▲
41.5%
45.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2, 2023 | 2 | 19:58 | Offensive | Sam Gagner |
| Jan 21, 2022 | OT | 02:09 | Defensive | Sam Gagner |
| Apr 24, 2021 | 2 | 08:47 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Apr 24, 2021 | 1 | 12:34 | Defensive | Sam Gagner |
| Apr 22, 2021 | 3 | 03:29 | Neutral | Sam Gagner |
| Mar 18, 2021 | 3 | 11:14 | Defensive | Sam Gagner |
| Mar 18, 2021 | 1 | 14:49 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 18, 2021 | 1 | 08:09 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Apr 4, 2019 | 1 | 08:52 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 19, 2015 | 3 | 12:06 | Offensive | Sam Gagner |
| Apr 4, 2015 | 3 | 05:30 | Neutral | Sam Gagner |
| Apr 4, 2015 | 3 | 01:04 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Apr 4, 2015 | 1 | 14:44 | Neutral | Sam Gagner |
| Apr 3, 2015 | 3 | 12:37 | Offensive | Sam Gagner |
| Apr 3, 2015 | 1 | 16:08 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Apr 3, 2015 | 1 | 09:35 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Apr 3, 2015 | 1 | 01:42 | Neutral | Sam Gagner |
| Feb 13, 2015 | 2 | 05:37 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 13, 2015 | 2 | 13:51 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 22, 2014 | 3 | 18:54 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |