Scouting Report
Sam Gagner holds a +11.4% FO% edge overall. Pavelski wins 53.0% vs right-shot opponents — Gagner shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pavelski 50.9% vs Gagner 52.4% (-11.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Gagner 57.1%
Defensive zone
Pavelski 64.2%
Neutral zone
Pavelski 52.7%
Result
Sam Gagner favored at 57.1%
42.9%
57.1%
Pavelski
Gagner
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
1
(1 meetings)
0
1
Pavelski
Gagner
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Gagner
0
1
Pavelski
Gagner
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pavelski
Gagner
Edge
Even Strength
51.5% (594)
76.5% (17)
-25.0%
Power Play
51.7% (87)
28.6% (7)
+23.1%
On even strength, Gagner has a +25.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gagner shoots right. Pavelski is 53.0% vs right-shot opponents (168).
Pavelski shoots right. Gagner is 66.7% vs right-shot opponents (6).
Home / Away
Pavelski
Gagner
Home
53.1% (339)
75.0% (16)
Away
49.2% (356)
37.5% (8)
By Period
Pavelski
Gagner
P1
53.8%
25.0%
P2
47.8%
64.3%
P3
50.2%
83.3%
Final 5 min
48.6%
70.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
51.1%
Gagner
48.0%▲
41.5%
62.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2, 2023 | 2 | 19:58 | Offensive | Sam Gagner |