Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +5.8% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pavelski 52.2% vs Gagner 47.5% (+5.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Pavelski 67.0%
Defensive zone
Gagner 82.0%
Neutral zone
Gagner 57.6%
Result
Sam Gagner favored at 82.0%
18.0%
82.0%
Pavelski
Gagner
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
1
(1 meetings)
0
1
Pavelski
Gagner
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Gagner
0
1
Pavelski
Gagner
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pavelski
Gagner
Edge
Even Strength
52.5% (570)
51.3% (158)
+1.2%
Power Play
54.5% (145)
66.7% (36)
-12.2%
Penalty Kill
44.4% (36)
33.6% (110)
+10.8%
On power play, Gagner has a +12.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gagner shoots right. Pavelski is 48.5% vs right-shot opponents (163).
Pavelski shoots right. Gagner is 54.7% vs right-shot opponents (64).
Home / Away
Pavelski
Gagner
Home
55.0% (391)
53.2% (154)
Away
49.7% (360)
40.0% (150)
By Period
Pavelski
Gagner
P1
50.8%
35.6%
P2
55.0%
52.7%
P3
52.0%
51.9%
OT
25.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
56.2%
34.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
52.5%
Gagner
48.0%▲
41.5%
46.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 21, 2022 | OT | 02:09 | Defensive | Sam Gagner |