Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +7.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Pavelski on defensive-zone draws (83% H2H, 6 meetings). Pavelski wins 54.1% vs right-shot opponents — Gagner shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pavelski 51.6% vs Gagner 44.6% (+7.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Pavelski 69.8%
Defensive zone
Pavelski 85.5%
Neutral zone
Pavelski 83.1%
Result
Joe Pavelski favored at 83.2%
83.2%
16.8%
Pavelski
Gagner
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
3
(9 meetings)
6
3
Pavelski
Gagner
Last 9: Pavelski 6-3 Gagner
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Gagner
0
1
Pavelski
Gagner
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
5
1
Pavelski
Gagner
6 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Pavelski
Gagner
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pavelski
Gagner
Edge
Even Strength
50.4% (480)
42.1% (575)
+8.3%
Power Play
51.5% (97)
55.3% (123)
-3.8%
Penalty Kill
60.2% (83)
34.9% (43)
+25.3%
On penalty kill, Pavelski has a +25.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gagner shoots right. Pavelski is 54.1% vs right-shot opponents (170).
Pavelski shoots right. Gagner is 44.1% vs right-shot opponents (186).
Home / Away
Pavelski
Gagner
Home
53.1% (311)
45.6% (375)
Away
50.7% (349)
42.1% (366)
By Period
Pavelski
Gagner
P1
55.4%
40.1%
P2
49.6%
42.2%
P3
51.7%
48.2%
OT
36.4%
56.3%
Final 5 min
54.5%
44.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
51.8%
Gagner
48.0%▲
41.5%
43.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 20, 2013 | OT | 03:10 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 20, 2013 | 3 | 09:15 | Neutral | Sam Gagner |
| Mar 20, 2013 | 3 | 07:23 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 20, 2013 | 2 | 18:31 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 20, 2013 | 1 | 14:10 | Defensive | Sam Gagner |
| Mar 20, 2013 | 1 | 13:45 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 20, 2013 | 1 | 10:11 | Offensive | Sam Gagner |
| Mar 20, 2013 | 1 | 05:48 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 22, 2013 | 1 | 04:02 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |