Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +5.9% FO% edge overall. Pavelski wins 55.2% vs right-shot opponents — Gagner shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pavelski 51.8% vs Gagner 47.5% (+5.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Pavelski 50.5%
Defensive zone
Gagner 50.4%
Neutral zone
Pavelski 51.2%
Result
Joe Pavelski favored at 50.0%
50.0%
50.0%
Pavelski
Gagner
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
3
(6 meetings)
3
3
Pavelski
Gagner
Last 6: Pavelski 3-3 Gagner
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
1
0
Pavelski
Gagner
1 total
Defensive Zone
Even
2
2
Pavelski
Gagner
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Gagner
0
1
Pavelski
Gagner
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pavelski
Gagner
Edge
Even Strength
53.5% (508)
45.4% (119)
+8.1%
Power Play
51.7% (118)
50.0% (40)
+1.7%
Penalty Kill
41.4% (70)
42.9% (21)
-1.5%
On even strength, Pavelski has a +8.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gagner shoots right. Pavelski is 55.2% vs right-shot opponents (163).
Pavelski shoots right. Gagner is 47.2% vs right-shot opponents (36).
Home / Away
Pavelski
Gagner
Home
54.3% (372)
49.0% (104)
Away
49.4% (324)
42.1% (76)
By Period
Pavelski
Gagner
P1
48.7%
44.4%
P2
57.7%
44.6%
P3
50.2%
49.3%
OT
44.4%
33.3%
Final 5 min
54.0%
58.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
52.0%
Gagner
48.0%▲
41.5%
46.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 24, 2021 | 2 | 08:47 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Apr 24, 2021 | 1 | 12:34 | Defensive | Sam Gagner |
| Apr 22, 2021 | 3 | 03:29 | Neutral | Sam Gagner |
| Mar 18, 2021 | 3 | 11:14 | Defensive | Sam Gagner |
| Mar 18, 2021 | 1 | 14:49 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 18, 2021 | 1 | 08:09 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |