Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (53.2% vs 53.9%). Look for Pavelski on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Pavelski wins 54.6% vs left-shot opponents — Kuraly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pavelski 52.9% vs Kuraly 53.2% (-0.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Pavelski 75.3%
Defensive zone
Kuraly 79.9%
Neutral zone
Kuraly 57.3%
Result
Joe Pavelski favored at 52.1%
52.1%
47.9%
Pavelski
Kuraly
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
2
(9 meetings)
7
2
Pavelski
Kuraly
Last 9: Pavelski 7-2 Kuraly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
4
0
Pavelski
Kuraly
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kuraly
0
2
Pavelski
Kuraly
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Pavelski
3
0
Pavelski
Kuraly
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pavelski
Kuraly
Edge
Even Strength
54.0% (730)
54.5% (464)
-0.5%
Power Play
57.1% (156)
0.0% (1)
+57.1%
Penalty Kill
41.7% (103)
50.0% (66)
-8.3%
On power play, Pavelski has a +57.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kuraly shoots left. Pavelski is 54.6% vs left-shot opponents (713).
Pavelski shoots right. Kuraly is 48.1% vs right-shot opponents (189).
Home / Away
Pavelski
Kuraly
Home
55.2% (458)
52.3% (281)
Away
51.4% (531)
55.6% (250)
By Period
Pavelski
Kuraly
P1
54.0%
56.0%
P2
54.5%
60.8%
P3
50.5%
44.3%
OT
60.0%
66.7%
Final 5 min
52.8%
57.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
53.2%
Kuraly
64.0%▲
57.0%
53.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 26, 2019 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 26, 2019 | 2 | 18:25 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 26, 2019 | 1 | 19:57 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Feb 26, 2019 | 1 | 08:10 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Feb 18, 2019 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 18, 2019 | 3 | 17:55 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 18, 2019 | 3 | 10:06 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 18, 2019 | 2 | 06:59 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 18, 2019 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |