Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +3.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Kuraly on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pavelski 50.9% vs Kuraly 48.4% (+3.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Pavelski 70.3%
Defensive zone
Kuraly 80.1%
Neutral zone
Kuraly 50.8%
Result
Joe Pavelski favored at 54.5%
54.5%
45.5%
Pavelski
Kuraly
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
2
(4 meetings)
2
2
Pavelski
Kuraly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
1
0
Pavelski
Kuraly
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kuraly
1
2
Pavelski
Kuraly
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pavelski
Kuraly
Edge
Even Strength
51.5% (594)
49.4% (445)
+2.1%
Power Play
51.7% (87)
100.0% (3)
-48.3%
Penalty Kill
28.6% (14)
41.9% (117)
-13.3%
On power play, Kuraly has a +48.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kuraly shoots left. Pavelski is 50.5% vs left-shot opponents (527).
Pavelski shoots right. Kuraly is 42.2% vs right-shot opponents (211).
Home / Away
Pavelski
Kuraly
Home
53.1% (339)
49.2% (248)
Away
49.2% (356)
47.3% (317)
By Period
Pavelski
Kuraly
P1
53.8%
48.3%
P2
47.8%
44.7%
P3
50.2%
51.7%
Final 5 min
48.6%
41.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
51.1%
Kuraly
64.0%▲
57.0%
48.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 9, 2023 | 2 | 16:53 | Neutral | Sean Kuraly |
| Nov 9, 2023 | 1 | 17:41 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Oct 30, 2023 | 3 | 16:21 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Oct 30, 2023 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sean Kuraly |