Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +3.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Kuraly on offensive-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pavelski 53.0% vs Kuraly 49.7% (+3.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Pavelski 92.0%
Defensive zone
Kuraly 80.1%
Neutral zone
Pavelski 58.9%
Result
Joe Pavelski favored at 71.4%
71.4%
28.6%
Pavelski
Kuraly
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
3
(7 meetings)
4
3
Pavelski
Kuraly
Last 7: Pavelski 4-3 Kuraly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Kuraly
2
3
Pavelski
Kuraly
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
2
0
Pavelski
Kuraly
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pavelski
Kuraly
Edge
Even Strength
52.3% (560)
49.2% (901)
+3.1%
Power Play
57.5% (113)
68.2% (22)
-10.7%
Penalty Kill
62.5% (16)
49.8% (219)
+12.7%
On penalty kill, Pavelski has a +12.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kuraly shoots left. Pavelski is 52.0% vs left-shot opponents (513).
Pavelski shoots right. Kuraly is 46.6% vs right-shot opponents (378).
Home / Away
Pavelski
Kuraly
Home
54.2% (360)
51.7% (603)
Away
52.6% (329)
47.3% (539)
By Period
Pavelski
Kuraly
P1
54.5%
50.9%
P2
56.7%
49.5%
P3
50.8%
49.1%
OT
30.8%
25.0%
Final 5 min
51.4%
45.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
53.4%
Kuraly
64.0%▲
57.0%
49.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 18, 2023 | 2 | 04:29 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 18, 2023 | 2 | 01:10 | Offensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Feb 18, 2023 | 2 | 00:59 | Offensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Dec 19, 2022 | 3 | 18:47 | Offensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Dec 19, 2022 | 2 | 13:03 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 19, 2022 | 2 | 09:24 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 19, 2022 | 1 | 06:24 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |