Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +3.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Pavelski on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 7 meetings). Pavelski wins 53.6% vs left-shot opponents — Kuraly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pavelski 52.2% vs Kuraly 49.5% (+3.1%)
H2H factor
Pavelski leads 9-5 in 14 meetings
Offensive zone
Pavelski 89.2%
Defensive zone
Kuraly 76.3%
Neutral zone
Pavelski 67.1%
Result
Joe Pavelski favored at 68.9%
68.9%
31.1%
Pavelski
Kuraly
Head-to-Head Record
9
-
5
(14 meetings)
9
5
Pavelski
Kuraly
Last 10: Pavelski 6-4 Kuraly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
7
0
Pavelski
Kuraly
7 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kuraly
1
2
Pavelski
Kuraly
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kuraly
1
3
Pavelski
Kuraly
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pavelski
Kuraly
Edge
Even Strength
52.5% (570)
52.3% (982)
+0.2%
Power Play
54.5% (145)
41.9% (43)
+12.6%
Penalty Kill
44.4% (36)
39.2% (245)
+5.2%
On power play, Pavelski has a +12.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kuraly shoots left. Pavelski is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (588).
Pavelski shoots right. Kuraly is 44.5% vs right-shot opponents (411).
Home / Away
Pavelski
Kuraly
Home
55.0% (391)
50.3% (680)
Away
49.7% (360)
48.5% (590)
By Period
Pavelski
Kuraly
P1
50.8%
49.5%
P2
55.0%
49.6%
P3
52.0%
49.0%
OT
25.0%
57.1%
Final 5 min
56.2%
47.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
52.5%
Kuraly
64.0%▲
53.5%
49.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 2, 2021 | 3 | 13:13 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Dec 2, 2021 | 2 | 18:45 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 2, 2021 | 2 | 18:42 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 2, 2021 | 2 | 06:49 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 2, 2021 | 2 | 03:37 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 2, 2021 | 2 | 01:00 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 2, 2021 | 2 | 00:49 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Dec 2, 2021 | 1 | 09:19 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 2, 2021 | 1 | 06:58 | Neutral | Sean Kuraly |
| Dec 2, 2021 | 1 | 06:53 | Neutral | Sean Kuraly |
| Dec 2, 2021 | 1 | 01:08 | Neutral | Sean Kuraly |
| Oct 25, 2021 | 2 | 10:41 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Oct 25, 2021 | 2 | 07:31 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Oct 25, 2021 | 1 | 01:38 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |